Storm Surge Research

Saving Lives When

Storms Strike

蘑菇tv Innovation Powers the Nation鈥檚 Most Trusted Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting Tool

Storm surge鈥攐cean water pushed inland by powerful winds鈥攃an cause water levels to rise by several feet in minutes, making it the leading cause of hurricane-related deaths in the U.S.

蘑菇tv鈥檚 Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment (CERA) tool provides real-time storm surge forecasts to protect lives, property, and entire communities鈥攗sing supercomputers, advanced modeling, and now artificial intelligence.

49%

U.S. hurricane-related deaths from 1963鈥�2012 that were caused by storm surge

The highest storm surge recorded, in feet, during Hurricane Katrina in 2005

Today, 2,000鈥�2,500 emergency management agencies across the U.S. rely on CERA to decide when to evacuate, close floodgates, or move critical assets out of harm鈥檚 way.

Q&A: Who uses CERA?

Thousands of agencies across the U.S., from local levee districts to federal response teams, as well as individual homeowners in hurricane zones. The data is also used by members of the science community as an after-the-fact accuracy test for forecasting simulations.

Screengrab of CERA tool showing map of the U.S. and color-coded surge heights

Q&A: How does CERA help during a storm?

CERA translates complex storm surge data into clear, color-coded maps for the public and more detailed tools for emergency managers, providing the information needed to make faster, safer decisions.

CERA researchers looking at data on screen

Q&A: What鈥檚 next for CERA?

Greater use of AI for speed, accuracy, and personalized forecasts that are not just more accurate, but more actionable鈥攄esigned around the real questions people ask during a storm: How bad will it be here? When should I leave? What can I expect afterward?鈥�

Carola and Hartmut Kaiser, who moved to Louisiana just weeks before Hurricane Katrina hit in 2005, found themselves experiencing the power of nature in a way they had not seen before.

Amid the fear and confusion of Katrina came an idea: a way to channel Carola鈥檚 expertise in cartography and Hartmut鈥檚 technical computer skills to benefit their new home of Louisiana.

鈥淪o, it was 鈥� in some sense life-changing, because it was completely unexpected. And we thought, 鈥榃hat can we do? How can we improve the information flow?鈥欌€� Hartmut Kaiser said.

Carola and Hartmut Kaiser knew 蘑菇tv researchers were doing hurricane simulations, as well as storm-surge forecasting, and thought they could help visualize that data on maps. 鈥淎nd with that, it was a great opportunity, which now led to this CERA system,鈥� Carola Kaiser said.

Carola Kaiser is the CERA team leader at the 蘑菇tv Center for Computation & Technology.

蘑菇tv Excellence and Partnerships Helped Build the CERA Tool

Excellence comes by performing and being a differentiator in (蘑菇tv鈥檚) ability to build things like CERA that no one else can do.
- Robert Twilley, 蘑菇tv鈥檚 vice president of research

蘑菇tv Excellence and Partnerships Helped Build the CERA Tool

The research community around hurricanes is very strong in Louisiana. There is a close connection between the local agencies and the research community at 蘑菇tv, related to tropical storm events.
- Hartmut Kaiser

蘑菇tv Excellence and Partnerships Helped Build the CERA Tool

It's definitely a large team effort, and we wouldn't be able to do it without everybody helping with that.
- Carola Kaiser

With Louisiana on the front lines of climate risk, the CERA researchers said having this research conducted in the state is vital.

鈥淭he research community around hurricanes is very strong in Louisiana,鈥� Hartmut Kaiser said. 鈥淭here is a close connection between the local agencies and the research community at 蘑菇tv, related to tropical storm events.鈥�

He pointed to direct support from the government projects that finance this kind of research at 蘑菇tv and CCT, an interdisciplinary research center that manages large computing resources needed to handle robust simulations.

鈥淚t鈥檚 not just about advancing technology,鈥� said Noujoud Nader, research scientist at the 蘑菇tv Center for Computation & Technology. 鈥淚t鈥檚 about helping families, local leaders, and first responders make better decisions when time and clarity are in short supply. I feel a deep responsibility to use my expertise in AI to protect people and make forecasting systems smarter, faster, and more equitable.鈥�

蘑菇tv alumni Gregory Grandy is a coastal resources administrator with the Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority, or CPRA.

Screen grab of the CERA map tool

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